Global Markets: Oil Demand Growth to Slow Significantly From 2020

Oil demand growth is expected to slow significantly from next year.

That’s according to McKinsey Energy Insights’ (MEI) Global Energy Perspective 2019 Reference Case, which was launched on Tuesday.

Global oil demand has grown by more than one percent per year over the last three decades, according to the new report. This growth is projected to slow to 0.7 percent per year from 2020 to 2030, however, the Reference Case highlights, before dropping to -0.2 percent per year from 2030 to 2040 and -0.6 percent per year from 2040 to 2050.

MEI projects a peak in global oil demand in 2033, at 108 million barrels per day, in its Reference Case. The peak in MEI’s 2019 report is projected four years earlier than in last year’s MEI report.

According to MEI’s Reference Case, the chemicals sector accounts for more than half of the growth in oil demand in the next 15 years, with the strongest declines in demand occurring in power and road transport.

“The chemicals sector is the main driver of oil demand growth but is expected to slow down after 2030, driven by slower plastics demand growth and increased plastic recycling,” the report states.

“Global annual electric vehicle sales are expected to exceed 100 million by 2035, triggering a decline in oil demand for road transport,” the report adds.

According to Rystad Energy’s current long-term outlook, oil demand will grow steadily in the 2020s and peak in the late 2030s.

“In our long-term outlook we currently see oil demand growing steadily in the 2020s and peaking in the late 2030s, as we incorporate moderate technological shifts and accelerated efficiency gains that will flatten on-road transportation demand and petrochemical feedstock demand growth towards 2040,” Rystad Energy’s Chief Oil Analyst Bjornar Tonhaugen said in a statement sent to Rigzone last month.