Peak oil demand is expected to come around 2036 as electric vehicles and autonomous vehicles are expected to play an increasingly important role in the world’s transportation sector, the Financial Times reported on Monday, quoting a long-term energy outlook by Wood Mackenzie.
“Autonomous electric vehicles or robo-taxis will really change the face of transport in the coming decades,” Ed Rawle, Wood Mackenzie’s head of crude oil research, told the FT.
According to the UK energy consultancy, autonomous EVs and robo taxis will become commercial by 2030 and gain wide acceptance by 2035. Each autonomous EV is forecast to displace more of the oil demand than the conventional EV, according to Woodmac.
“They will be on the road far more as they are autonomous, displacing a disproportionate amount of oil-based transport,” the FT quoted Rawle as saying.
Over the next ten years, the biggest curb on oil demand will be fuel efficiency, and gasoline demand is seen as the first oil-based fuel to reach its peak—at around 2030, according to Wood Mackenzie.
Other sources of oil demand, including petrochemicals, will grow stronger than gasoline demand, the analysts say.
Many companies, including Saudi Aramco, are betting on petrochemicals to secure long-term demand for its crude oil.
Aramco, however, says that there is no “impending peak demand”, and that “global oil demand will continue to grow and that oil will maintain its preeminence in the global energy mix for the foreseeable future.”
But European oil majors have started to project in recent years that the world is likely to reach peak oil demand within two decades, or probably earlier, and have started to incorporate those projections in their ‘energy transition’ scenarios.
BP, for example, expects peak oil demand in the 2030s, with EVs at around a third of the car market. Equinor expects that peak oil demand could come around 2030 at 111 million bpd in the current market as road transport electrification and efficiency gains in all sectors offset increasing petrochemical and aviation growth.
By Tsvetana Paraskova for Oilprice.com