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Norway-based consultancy Rystad Energy says that a group of second-tier producing nations are vying to upset the Top 5 LNG producers club and make a grab for market share in the next supply wave.
However its June 25 graphic and analysis forecast that only Mozambique, Papua New Guinea, and maybe a 7th train in Nigeria will be significant volume challengers to the Top 5 by the second half of the 2020s. The analysis included Indonesia, Mauritania/Senegal, Tanzania, and Equatorial Guinea – of which it says the Fortuna floating LNG project now only has a 50-50 chance of starting in the mid-2020s.
Amongst the Top 5 by 2020, it sees only Qatar as the only ‘sure bet’ contributor to the next wave of LNG supply (2023-2030).
Rystad’s blog a week ago – in no particular order – listed Qatar, US, Russia, Canada – and Australia as the Top 5 by then but added that, once Ichthys and Prelude projects are commissioned there in later in 2018, few other Australian LNG export projects are lined up for a Final Investment Decision so as to be starting production in the 2020s (Woodside’s Browse and Scarborough being the best prospects).
By 2022, Australia will have 117.8bn m3 (85mn mt) per year of LNG export capacity, followed by the US with 106.7bn m3/yr and Qatar – similar to now – with 104.9bn m3 (76mn mt) per year, according to the International Energy Agency’s ‘Gas 2017’ medium term outlook, published a year ago. However Qatar is planning to boost its LNG production by a massive 30% to some 100mn mt/yr by 2025. Last week the European Commission announced its surprise decision to probe Qatar’s long-term LNG supply contracts for possible destination restrictions; these being forbidden under EU law.