Mozambique expects significant revenues from new natural gas projects from the end of the 2020s, according to a presentation to investors in London yesterday. The projections of Mozambique’s National Petroleum Institute (INP) formed part of the macroeconomic outlook presented to a meeting with public debt creditors.
“The initial government revenues from the production of liquid natural gas (LNG) will be taxed on withholding taxes and profit-sharing agreements, so they will remain limited,” the presentation detailed.
Significant revenues “derived from corporate income tax” should begin to flow into state coffers “at the end of the 2020s, beginning of the 2030s, at best”.
According to graphs presented, Mozambique expects to start receiving revenues from new Rovuma basin natural gas projects from 2021, but values are expected to remain relatively low until 2027.
Joint exploration revenues for Area 1 and Area 4 are expected to approach US$500 million a year by 2027, approaching and even surpassing the US$1 billion mark by 2031.
One billions dollars represents about 7 percent of Mozambique’s current annual gross domestic product (GDP), currently valued at US$14.7 billion, according to International Monetary Fund (IMF) data from October 2017.
The government predicts that from 2034 onwards, 16 years from now, it will earn around US$2.7 billion in the most modest years and over US$3 billion in the highest-performing years, representing about one-fifth of GDP as it will by then be.
The same presentation projected annual GDP growth of 3.4 percent on average until 2022, and exceeding seven percent thereafter.
The document points out, however, some risks to be taken into account with regard to expected LNG revenues. Operational risks, possible changes in the environment for megaprojects in Mozambique and global overproduction of LNG are among the potential constraints.