Libya and Nigeria are at ‘high risk’ of oil sector disruption, especially towards the end of 2018, according to oil and gas analysts at BMI Research as resported by Rigzone.
“Libya is exploring the possibility of elections at some point over 2018. While our core view here is that elections will be pushed into 2019, militant factions across the country will need to align support with their favoured presidential candidate and will likely turn to disrupting oil infrastructure to gain leverage,” the analysts said in a brief research note sent to Rigzone.
“Similarly, Nigerian elections are scheduled for February 2019. While this remains a year away and potential candidates are unclear, if Buhari chooses to run again or suggests an alternative candidate from the north of the country, it will not sit well with the militant groups of the south,” the analysts added.
BMI highlighted that the Niger Delta Avengers group has already singled out the Egina FPSO as a potential target for attacks, among other infrastructure across the south. In 2016, Niger Delta Avenger attacks on Nigeria’s energy infrastructure threatened West African production and power supply.