Global Markets: “Gas to be fastest growing fossil fuel in 2040” – forecasts

Natural Gas

The share of gas in the overall energy mix will increase from 22 percent in 2016 to 26 percent in 2040, and gas will be the fastest growing fossil fuel in 2040, increasing by 1.8 percent per annum, said the Global Gas Outlook released by the Gas Exporting Countries Forum (GECF).

Non-OECD Asia, the Middle East, and Africa constitute the fastest growing regional energy markets between 2017 and 2040, according to GECF forecasts.

“World natural gas consumption will increase by 53 percent from 3534 billion cubic meters in 2016 to 5395 billion cubic meters in 2040, led by non-OECD Asia, the Middle East, and Africa. Natural gascontinues to be an attractive fuel for the power generation, domestic and industrial sectors in 2040,” said the report.

GECF analysts expect that in the long-term, the transport sector will be the fastest growing in terms of natural gas consumption, with an annual average growth of 3.9 percent, eclipsing the power sector which will grow at a rate of 2.5 percent per annum.

The industry sector will also contribute to gas demand with growth of 1.2 percent per year, reaching 838 billion cubic meters by 2040, as it replaces oil as a raw material for petrochemical manufacturing, according to the report.

GECF forecasts that the share of gas in the power generation sector will continue to rise from 23 percent in 2016 to 28 percent in 2040, with an average growth rate of 0.9 percent per annum, which represents the largest market share of any fuel.

This report expects the global share of natural gas demand to rise from 22 percent in 2016 to 26 percent in 2040, for several reasons.

“First, a growing urban population will require more gas-powered electricity. Second, both economic and environmental considerations favour natural gas, due to the combination of low prices and low CO2 emissions, relative to other fossil fuels. Finally, growing extraction of unconventional natural gasreserves (such as shale, tight gas and CBM) in the US and China will dramatically increase natural gasdemand over the outlook period. This is mainly due to lower prices resulting from higher natural gassupplies,” said GECF.

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