The oil-exporting countries should see their public accounts move from surplus to deficit in 2015 because of the decline in tax revenues resulting from the reduction in oil prices, the International Monetary Fund considers.
The “Fiscal Monitor” report (Budget Monitor) released today in Washington, says that “the oil exporting countries will, in general, undergo a decline of its budgetary outcomes” and explains that “with revenues falling due to declining production and oil prices, the average budgetary outcomes should change from surplus to deficit in 2015.”
Angola, however, has seen its budget be decisively influenced by changes in oil prices in anticipation for this year a deficit of 4.1% of Gross Domestic Product, which will remain unchanged until 2017, after improving to 3.6 %, according to IMF forecasts. State revenues will therefore decrease and, last year, represented 41.1% of GDP, but will drop to 37.5% this year and 37% next. Public expenditure, moreover, should increase slightly, from 40.7% of GDP in 2013 to 41.6% this year and 41.2% next year.
In World Economic Outlook (WEO), released on Tuesday, the IMF predicts that the economy of Angola is the least that will this year grow between oil producers in sub-Saharan Africa, but is expected to rise in 2015 a position in the group of those seven countries.
The numbers in the report maintains the data advanced by the IMF in July, whereas the Angolan economy is expected to grow 3.9% this year, accelerating to 5.9% next year, after growing 6.8% in 2013 In WEO April, the numbers pointed to a growth of 4.1% last year, 5.3% this year and 5.5% in 2015, but would be revised due to “slowing expansion of agricultural production due to temporary fall of oil production in the first half of the year. ”
Now, according to the financial institution, it is estimated that the GDP this year Angola has the lowest growth in the group of the seven oil producing countries in Sub-Saharan Africa – with the exception of Equatorial Guinea, which is expected to continue in deep recession this year and in 2015 the group, which also includes Nigeria, Gabon, Chad, Republic of Congo and South Sudan, is expected to grow 6.1% this year and 7% in 2015 (average values).
In 2015, the IMF expects growth of Angola’s GDP (5.9%) supplant Gabon, whose forecast is 5.4%, allowing up a position in that group of oil producers. The financial institution has advocated a review of Angolan politics of fuel subsidy to “rationalize” public financial resources and broaden social support – noting that subsidies, which allow a fixed price in fuels for several years, representing 4% of GDP Angolan . (Source: Lusa agency)